Stability Effects of Arbitrage in Exchange Traded Funds: An Agent-Based Model

M Shearer, D Byrd, TH Balch, and MP Wellman 2nd ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF), Article No.: 49, pages 1–9, November 2021. Abstract An index-based exchange traded fund (ETF) with underlying securities that trade on…

Timing is Money: The Impact of Arrival Order in Beta-Bernoulli Prediction Markets

B Martin, S Kutty, and M Chakraborty 2nd ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF), Article No.: 41, pages 1–9, November 2021. Abstract Prediction markets are incentive-based mechanisms for eliciting and combining the diffused,…

An Agent-Based Model of Strategic Adoption of Real-Time Payments

K Mayo, S Fozdar, and MP Wellman 2nd ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF), Article No.: 45, pages 1–9, November 2021. Abstract Real-time payments (RTPs) allow consumers to receive funds before the completion of payment…

Building Action Sets in a Deep Reinforcement Learner

Y Wang, A Sinha, S CH-Wang, and MP Wellman 20th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA-21), pages 484–489, December 2021. Abstract In many policy-learning applications, the agent may execute a set of actions…

Designing a Combinatorial Financial Options Market

X Wang, DM Pennock, NR Devanur, DM Rothschild, B Tao, and MP Wellman 22nd ACM Conference on Economics and Computation (EC), pages 864-883, July 2021. Abstract Financial options are contracts that specify the right to buy or sell an underlying…

Log-time Prediction Markets for Interval Securities

M Dudík, X Wang, D Pennock, and D Rothschild 20th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS), pages 465-473, May 2021. Abstract We design a prediction market to recover a complete and fully general probability…

A Strategic Analysis of Portfolio Compression

K Mayo and MP Wellman 2nd ACM International Conference on AI in Finance (ICAIF), Article No.: 20, pages 1–8, November 2021. Extended abstract appeared in 20th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS),…

Evolution Strategies for Approximate Solution of Bayesian Games

Z Li and MP Wellman 35th AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence, pages 5531-5540, Feb 2021. Abstract We address the problem of solving complex Bayesian games, characterized by high-dimensional type and action spaces, many (> 2) players,…

Iterative Empirical Game Solving via Single Policy Best Response

MO Smith, T Anthony, and MP Wellman 9th International Conference on Learning Representations (ICLR), Spotlight Presentation, May 2021. Abstract Policy-Space Response Oracles (PSRO) is a general algorithmic framework for learning policies…